In recent months gold price remain in the region of 1800-1600$ and in recent weeks it seems that gold price is trying its footing on 1600$. Last week we clearly saw that gold price tried to make direction through 1640$.
Last Friday Gold price closed just above 1640$ which shows support on the daily graph. The daily graph shows that gold price just came on footing line but need to show break above 1675$ to show that bull is back on weekly bull trend line to claim 1825$ in coming weeks. Such momentum shows that gold price need big force to keep its bull train. Any gold price closing below 1640$ will accelerated bearish movement and any price below 1675$ weakens bull train. We recommend buy to gold on further loosen price than to sell now. MACD has weeken last on support line.
By DFT for the week 22-27 April
The direction of the U.S. dollar versus the euro and a meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy committee will influence the direction for the precious metals markets next week. Weekend events, such as the outcome of the International Monetary Fund meeting and the first round of French presidential elections, may also impact precious-metals prices.Prices were mixed on Friday and mixed on the week.
The U.S. dollar’s movement could be what determines where gold trades next week. Some cited Friday’s weakness in the dollar and strength in the euro as potentially supportive for gold. Normally gold and the dollar trade inversely because gold is denominated in dollars. Just how much strength the euro will have next week could depend on the outcome of the French presidential election, with current President Nicholas Sarkozy and socialist candidate Francois Hollande expected to advance to the second round. The second vote will occur on May 6.
Brown Brothers Harriman said that Hollande has suggested European Central Bank should cut rates to help the eurozone while Sarkozy has said that the ECB should play a “pro-growth” role for Europe. “No matter who wins the election in France, the fraying of Franco-German relations is already being seen and is likely to get worse as the French economy outlook deteriorates,” BBH said.
Barclays Capital said they believe that Hollande will win the May 6 second round, but said they worries about Hollande are overblown. “Although Hollande's policy proposals have captured market attention, we think the election is likely not a game changer,” they said.
The IMF is meeting Friday and this weekend to discuss, among other topics, the continued sovereign-debt problems in Europe. The IMF expected to achieve the $400 billion dollar boost it seeks to help Europe and sources said more clarity could come on the expansion in IMF funding, giving markets a stronger sense on what’s available to support the global economy.
Another influence on the euro may be the results of the eurozone purchasing managers’ index, a manufacturing survey. Higher-than-expected data would be euro-supportive, while lower-than-expected data would pressure the euro.
Several market watchers said if the euro weakens, the dollar will likely rally and pressure gold, while if the euro stabilizes and rises, gold may also follow suit since the dollar would fall. But not everyone thinks the dollar is hampering gold. Some suggested that gold is tripping on its own weight because of its range-bound trade lately.
Frank Lesh, futures analyst at FuturePath Trading, said perhaps gold is weakening despite currency movements.
“Gold is losing its luster and trade (Friday) is an example of the situation. When was the last time we have seen the dollar index down 45 points and gold struggle…? This year traders are not rewarded being long. Traders no longer say don’t be short as there are opportunities on both sides of this market now. The charts look bearish with a succession of lower highs and lows. I expect gold to trade lower next week,” he said.
Market participants will also watch the outcome of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak after the results are released.
There is no change expected in the policy as rates are likely to stay at historic lows. Analysts at Nomura said “we think the statement will reflect a modest fine-tuning of the committee’s assessment of current and prospective economic conditions. How the committee chooses to weigh its assessment of incoming data could affect market perceptions of future policy actions.”
They added that they don’t believe the FOMC will want to “convey a new message. But the forecasting process, and Mr. Bernanke's comments, may give us some new insights into how the committee’s thinking about the future course of monetary policy is evolving.”
If the market feels another round of stimulus may be in the offing, that could support gold prices, traders said.
Also, next week brings the Indian festival Akshaya Trithiya and market watchers are closely gauging demand considering physical demand there has been light lately because of a weak Indian rupee and a now-ended jewelers strike to protest higher taxes. Several analysts have said buying interest in gold at recent dips in prices has not been enough to encourage buying, so it may take a trip lower to do so.
“Taken in the context of next week’s significant Akshaya Tritiya festival, this (lack of demand) is somewhat worrying. By this time last year, volumes were consistently well above average. Robust volumes were sustained for more than a week following the festival, only falling off materially two weeks later…. This year, with time running out before Tuesday's festival, buying patterns observed so far this year suggest that the likelihood of a surge in physical demand is quite limited unless a deeper price pull-back occurs. Current prices are not enticing physical buyers,” said Edel Tully, UBS strategist.
News Source :By Debbie Carlson